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Realignment Reax

Unless you were living under a rock this week just to see what it would be like, you’ve heard that Major League Baseball and the players’ union are discussing a plan to rejigger the leagues and po ...

Thirty Years of Streaking

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday mornin ...

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Realignment Reax

by admin on July 1, 2011

Unless you were living under a rock this week just to see what it would be like, you’ve heard that Major League Baseball and the players’ union are discussing a plan to rejigger the leagues and possibly eliminate.

 

 

 

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

 

 

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Thirty Years of Streaking

by admin on July 1, 2011

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning),

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This morning in Baseball Prospectus, Michael Jong explained that the Florida Marlins have the worst one month record in the National League East over the last 50 years.  At 1-18 (as of Tuesday morning), the Marlins have a winning percentage of .053 so far in June. According to Jong, the next worst winning percentage for an NL East team goes to the 1997 Philadelphia Phillies, who posted a 4-22 record in June (.154).

 

That got me thinking.

 

Looking at losing streaks by months is interesting, but months are just arbitrary dividers in a 162-game schedule.  Why not look at team records over a 20-game period?  That’s just as arbitrary.  So that’s what I did.

 

I wanted to know how the 2011 Marlins compared to all major league teams over the last 30 years.  The Marlins are in the midst of a 1-19 run, dating to June 1.  That’s a .050 winning percentage.  I looked to see how many other teams had recorded a .100 winning percentage or worse over a 20-game period at any point in the season.  In other words, which teams posted records of either 0-20, 1-19 or 2-18 in a 20-game stretch over the last 30 years.

 

And the awards go to . . . .

 

Gold Circle of Ineptitude

 

The winner for ineptitude, of course, is the 1988 Baltimore Orioles, who started the season with a 21-game losing streak. That’s a .000 winning percentage over the first 20 games of the season.  No other team has matched that streak in the last 30 years.

 

Silver Circle of Ineptitude

 

The Silver Circle recognizes those teams who’ve posted 1-19 records (.050 winning percentage) over any 20-game stretch in the last 30 years.   We start, of course, with the 2011 Florida Marlins.  But the Marlins are not alone.  There’s the 2005 Kansas City Royals, the 1997 Philadelphia Phillies, the 1996 Detroit Tigers, the 1988 California Angels, and the 1982 Minnesota Twins.

 

Bronze Medal of Ineptitude

The Bronze Medal goes to those teams that posted 2-18 records (.100) during any 20-game stretch in the last 30 years. This is a crowded field, much more crowded than I expected.  A full list is below, but a few points worth noting:

 

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers had three separate 20-game stretches with 2-18 records.  I think that pushes the 2003 Tigers to the Platinum Circle of Ineptitude.  The 1996 Tigers, who had one streak of 1-19, also had a 2-18 stretch.  Not the 2003 Tigers, but close.  Only one other team in the last 30 years had two separate 2-18 stretches–the 1987 Baltimore Orioles.

 

Eleven franchises (that have been in existence for 30 years) have avoided a 2-18 stretch (or worse) since 1981: Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals/Montreal Expos, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.  The same is true for the Rockies and the Rays, in their shorter existence.   I was surprised the Nationals/Expos made this list.  Any teams surprise you?

 

That leaves 17 franchises that have posted at least one 2-18 record (or worse) over a 20-game stretch at some point in the last 30 years.  Some have done it more than once:  2010 Pittsburgh Pirates, 2008 Oakland A’s, 2006 Atlanta Braves, 2004 New York Mets, 2004 Arizona Diamondbacks, 2003 Texas Rangers, 2002 Baltimore Orioles, 2001 Baltimore Orioles, 2001 Anaheim Angels, 2000 Chicago Cubs, 1999 Philadelphia Phillies, 1997 Kansas City Royals, 1994 Oakland A’s, 1992 Seattle Mariners, 1991 Cleveland Indians, 1991 New York Mets, 1987 Milwaukee Brewers, 1985 Pittsburgh Pirates, 1982 Atlanta Braves, and 1982 New York Mets.

 

The 2011 Florida Marlins have hardly cornered the market on baseball ineptitude.

 

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Hello world!

by admin on June 21, 2011

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!

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Prior to Monday night’s game against the Angels, the Marlins were 1-18 in June.  Manager Edwin Rodriguez resigned yesterday and the Marlins hired Jack McKeon today as the interim manager.  Two weeks earlier, the Fish had fired hitting coach John Mallee and replaced him with ESPN analyst Eduardo Perez.  But lack of offense explains only part of the Marlins demise.  The real problem for the Marlins in June has been pitching.

 

Marlins ace Josh Johnson was untouchable in April, starting 6 games with 41 inning pitched, a 3-0 record and an .88 ERA.  May was a different story, as Johnson’s pitching may have started to show the effects of the shoulder inflammation that sent him to the DL on May 21.  Johnson started 3 games in May, pitched 14.1 innings, went 0-1, and posted an ERA of 3.26.   Not April’s numbers, but better than Johnson’s replacements in the starting rotation.

 

In June, Brad Hand started 3 games for the Marlins, pitched only 15.2 innings, and lost all 3 games.  Hand’s BB/K ratio is an abysmal 1.11 and he’s given up 2.3 HRs/9 innings pitched.  Elih Villanueva started one game for the Marlins in June, lasted only 3 innings, and ended the outing with a 24.00 ERA.

 

Marlins starter Anibal Sanchez was lights out in May, posting a 4-0 record in 6 games started, with a 1.66 ERA.  Sanchez is 1-0 in June, but his ERA this month is up to 4.82.  He’s also seen his Left-on-Base Percentage (LOB%) drop from 87.3% in May to 64.4% in June.

 

The other Marlins starters–Chris Volstad, Javier Vazquez, and Ricky Nolasco–have also fared worse in June.  Nolasco, in particular, has seen his numbers decline since the start of the season.  In April, Nolasco started 5 games, went 2-0, and posted a 3.24 ERA.  In May, he started 6 games, went 2-1, but his ERA climbed to 4.31.  June’s been even worse: 4 games started, 0-2 record, and a 6.75 ERA.   Volstad and Vazquez haven’t pitched very well all season.

 

The Marlins bullpen was an early strength, particularly Michael Dunn and closer Leo Nunez.  In April, Nunez pitched in 13 games, recorded 8 saves, and posted a 2.77 ERA.  Nunez added 11 saves in May in 14 games pitched, with 1 loss.  His May ERA was 3.21.  Nunez hasn’t seen much action in June with the Marlins long losing streak, but he has pitched in 4 games, with 1 loss and a June ERA of 9.00.

 

Dunn was outstanding in April, pitching in 9.2 innings over 11 games, and posting a 0.00 ERA.  But it’s been all downhill for Dunn.  In June, he’s pitched 8.2 innings over 9 games and taken the loss in 3 games with no wins.  Dunn’s era in June is 5.19.

 

Yes, the Marlins offense has sputtered in June. Gaby Sanchez, Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison and Greg  Dobbs have all seen their wOBA (weighted On-Base Percentage) decline significantly this month.  wOBAs for Morrison, Dobbs and Ramirez have decreased by more than .100.  But John Buck, Emilio Bonifacio, and Omar Infante have picked up some of the slack.  They each raised their wOBA in June by .50.   In Stanton, Sanchez and Buck, the Marlins still have 3 everyday players with wOBA in June over .330 (last year’s league average).  The Phillies only have 4 such players (Utley, Rollins, Victorino and Howard).

 

The Marlins are stocked with good, young, athletic players.  With a new manager and new hitting coach, the offense should get back on track.  But it’s the pitching that must make a quick turnaround if the Marlins are going to get back in the race in the National League East.

 

All statistics courtesy of Fangraphs.

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Realignment Reax

by admin on June 17, 2011

Unless you were living under a rock this week just to see what it would be like, you’ve heard that Major League Baseball and the players’ union are discussing a plan to rejigger the leagues and possibly eliminate divisions.  Some call it “realignment”; others say “unalignment.”

 

Whatever the name, the basic idea is to move one National League team to the American League, so that both leagues have 15 teams.  The Houston Astros, Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins appear to be on the short list for the switch to the AL.  I haven’t seen anyone mention moving the Milwaukee Brewers, who played in the American League until the last realignment in 1994.  Which is odd because one of the apparent motivations for realignment is that the National League Central, where the Brewers play, has 6 teams, and the American League West only has 4 teams.  Nobody ever said that logic and rationality were on the table in these discussions.

 

I’m still thinking about the possibilities and haven’t decided yet where I come out.  I know what you’re thinking– a blogger without a quick and certain opinion?  What good is that?  A lot of good, I believe.  We’re not debating whether Andres Torres should have tried to steal second base after a lead-off walk in the top of the 8th inning in last night’s Giants-Diamondbacks game.  (Yes, he should have.)  We’re talking about how to structure Major League Baseball in a way that is fair to teams and players, maximizes entertainment for fans, and enhances the financial success of the sport. Seems like the sort of decision we should think about for more than a week.

 

To advance the debate, I’ve pulled together a collection of realignment articles, blogs posts, and commentaries from around the web.  All thoughtful, interesting takes.  Give ‘em a read and then add your thoughts in the comments section.

 

  • Rob Neyer, National Baseball Editor at Baseball Nation:  MLB Realignment? Bring It On (yes, there’s a link back to one of my old posts)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I’m sure there are more good ones out there.  Add your thoughts (and other links) in the comments section.  This is a biggie folks.

 

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